After reading the very impressive Football Manager Meets Moneyball series by Alex Stewart of The Set Pieces one afternoon, I was inspired to create my own version of the moneyball series for my blog. The theory, which has it’s roots in baseball, has become increasingly popular for many franchises across different sports.
For those that aren’t aware of the moneyball system;
“The Moneyball thesis is simple: Using statistical analysis, small-market teams can compete by buying assets that are undervalued by other teams and selling ones that are overvalued by other teams.”
The first thing I did was establish the rules of the save, which are outlined in The Set Pieces’ original article and which were inspired by Kuper and Szymanski’s list in the book Soccernomics. They are as follows;
1. Net wage spend is more important than net transfer spend (pp. 14-21)
2. Don’t needlessly splash out on new players or sell old ones when you take over a club – the New Manager Syndrome (pp. 21-22)
3. Don’t buy players who impressed at international tournaments: they’re likely to be overvalued and past performance is no indication of future performance, especially when they’re playing with a different team (pp. 22-24) – there are different incentives and a different tactical set-up at tournaments, and it’s a super small sample size.
4. Some nationalities are overrated, like Holland, Brazil, and England (pp. 24-25)
5. Sell your players at the right time: when they’re around 30 years old, goalkeepers aside (p. 29)
6. Use the wisdom of crowds: ask all your scouts and a Director of Football if you have one (pp. 43-44)
7. Buy players in their early twenties, which avoids the problems with not developing properly, and means previous statistics have greater value (pp. 45-47)
8. Centre-forwards cost more than they should (p. 47)
9. Sell any player if a club offers more than they are worth and try to replace them before they are sold (pp. 48-49)
10. Don’t buy players if you don’t need to: develop a youth network and try to develop your own players (pp. 49-51)
With my ground rules set, it was time to pick a team. I decided to pick a team from either the Championship or League 1. Blackburn took my fancy, as did Nottingham Forest, but I wasn’t keen on the idea of restoring a team to their former glories. No, I was more interested in the underdog, a team with potential and room for growth. And then it hit me. Brentford.
I remembered reading Brentford had a similar moneyball system in real life, and the more I read about them, the more I liked the idea of managing them. The Bee’s, it could be argued, are punching well above their weight in the Championship against so called ‘bigger’ sides. To put this into perspective, in terms of transfers Aston Villa spent more money last season than Brentford have in their entire 127 year history.
Since being taken over by lifelong fan Matthew Benham five years ago, Brentford’s fortunes have changed massively. Benham, a millionaire former professional gambler and owner of a betting company, decided to put Brentford at the forefront of analytics in English football. This model has seen them rise from 9th in League One to 5th in the Championship under his ownership. Benham also owns FC Midtjylland in Denmark and uses the same financial model that is used with Brentford.
Something else that caught my eye about Brentford is that they operate without a youth academy, instead choosing to have a B team filled with overseas prospects or Premier League cast offs. The club’s hierarchy calculated that the costs of running and academy and the lack of success with producing their own players didn’t suit their model, thus dispensing with it. This is something that would suit me in my quest to achieve pure moneyball in FM18. Admittedly, it would be nice to produce my own players in the game, but I won’t let it get in the way of my moneyball objectives.
Regarding transfers, the Scandinavian influence at the club is clear. The region itself is awash with talent whose potential is high and whose cost is low, hence Brentford casting their net to this part of the world. Cast offs from Premier League clubs are usually a good option also, so scouting will be key. When scouting, I will also be analysing the average performance ratings of players to see if they are up to scratch (around 7.0 is what we are aiming for).
Another attraction to Brentford is the room for growth. The stadium currently has a capacity of 12,000, which is pretty small for the level they are at. Admittedly, it will be extended to 17,000 but I’m hoping with greater financial power we will be able to expand or even buy a new stadium (Griffin Park was built in 1904, so they are probably due a new one). Training facilities and coaching all have room for improvement, so this is something I want to build on as we move on in the save.
The squad itself is raw but talented, with plenty of 4 and 5 star potential players. It’s littered with injuries to players such as Alan Judge and Sergi Canos, so it’s an opportunity for fringe players to come in, possibly from my B team. Key men include; the unfortunately named Andreas Bjelland, Henrik Dalsgaard, Neal Maupey and John Egan, but by and large we have a well rounded squad. However, it’s important not to get too attached to players, because as outlined in the rules, “Sell any player if a club offers more than they are worth and try to replace them before they are sold”. I won’t be making major changes in my first season, so it will interesting to see how the players develop.
So there you have it, a quick introduction to the series with my rules outlined and my team picked. In the next blog you will see how I’ve fared in season 1 of the save with Brentford.
Useful articles on Brentford and their model can be found here and here
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